Earnings Trader - High Performance Earnings Pre-Announcement Trading Strategy
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What are Earnings pre-announcements?- Weeks or even months before earnings reports are due out companies will Pre-Announce estimates of their forecasts of where they expect to be when the day of reckoning arrives. These announcements are essentially "mid-course corrections" to provide analysts and the investing public a "heads up" so there aren't any nasty surprises when the time comes to fess up. By getting bad news out early they lessen the impact on stock price so as to avoid sharp spikes, up or down. Intel in the past was so good at this that they would "program" their earnings forecasts so they would ALWAYS beat the street by a penny consistently quarter after quarter, year after year.
"Earnings Trader" Intermediate Term Trades -What are they?" - The
Earnings System is based on following the pre-announcements of the companies on a daily list which is provided to you. We DO NOT immediately buy this announcement, but instead wait to see what the reaction of the market will be and even then DO NOT take every stock. We DO NOT enter the trade immediately, as the majority of these trades will fade, whether long or short Instead we will wait to enter the trade, thus qualifying the stock for action. Less than 25% of stocks with earnings pre-announcements will qualify as a signal, and better than 70% of qualified signals have gone on to be profitable winning trades. NOTE THAT WE BUY STOCKS OR TRADE CALL OPTIONS ON ALL EARNINGS SIGNALS WHETHER IT IS A POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT...THERE IS NO SHORT SELLING WITH THIS TRADING SYSTEM.
"Buy the rumor...Sell the news" - One of the biggest problems to be addressed in any trading system is when to exit. Just because a stock has a gap up pre announcement and subsequent pullback DOES NOT mean that we are going to hold it into the final earnings announcement. There is an old adage in the markets that even neophytes learn early on called 'Buy the rumor, Sell the Facts" and many times even an improved earnings picture over what was previously pre-announced can see the stock decline. There are numerous reasons for this, not the least of which is that traders tend to "Bake" the numbers into the current price. They anticipate that the news is already in the price and therefore, there is no surge when the numbers meet estimates, or even beat by a bit. Another reason is forward looking guidance...Just as important is what the company has to say about not the past quarter, but the next succeeding quarters or year. Many times an excellent earnings report will see the stock trashed because the company says it for-sees lower earnings or a slow market in the future.
*Positive AND Negative Earnings Pre announcements - Can be just as compelling and we can play both sides of these announcements. On the downside, investors and traders alike can be brutally destructive to weak earnings estimates, particularly when they come out of the blue. The result is an initial over-reaction to the downside that dissipates within days and reverses back to near the point where the announcement was made. As we get closer to the actual announcement date price will slide in anticipation of the poor report, but again we have to know when to get out so that we don't get caught with an "Earnings Surprise" which is slightly better than the dismal original estimate, or forward looking guidance that predicts that the company is seeing a turn-around for the forthcoming quarters. This can be just a devastating to price direction, so we have to have a way to monitor and take profits while we can.